- Novel CDR methods must grow quickly in the next decade to reach the scale necessary for meeting temperature targets
- The scale and speed required for novel CDR to reach climate relevant scale is in line with the fastest historical analogues
To meet the temperature targets agreed upon in the Paris Agreement will require both rapidly reducing emissions and scaling up carbon dioxide removal. Virtually all scenarios that limit warming to 1.5 degrees or 2 degrees C require novel CDR (for example, direct air capture with carbon capture and storage or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage). In this study, we compare the amount of novel CDR included in scenarios that reach temperature targets with other energy/climate technologies in their formative phase.
The study finds that novel CDR methods need to scale at a faster rate than they have before. The study focuses specifically on the formative phase of technology growth – between first commercialization and rapid scale-up. The speed and scale achieved in the formative phase is important to understand the feasibility of reaching levels of CDR that are relevant for meeting temperature goals.
We find that the scale up rates needed for novel carbon removal to meet these targets are within the range of historical experience for climate and energy technologies – but need to grow as fast as the fastest technologies to be climate relevant.
References
Nemet, G.F., Gidden, M.J., Greene, J., Roberts, C., Lamb, W.F., Minx, J.C., Smith, S.M., Geden, O., Riahi, K (2023)
Joule